One of the hottest real estate stories in the GTA right now is not just about prices or sales. It is about future housing supply. CMHC says Toronto housing starts are projected to remain low in 2026, mainly because condominium starts continue to slow, even though rental construction is helping offset part of the weakness.
This matters because the GTA depends heavily on new condo development to add ownership housing. When fewer condo projects launch, the market may not feel the full impact immediately, but the effect can become more serious over time. CMHC says sales activity is expected to increase in 2026, but still remain below historical averages, which creates a market where demand may improve before enough new supply is ready.
The challenge is even broader across Ontario. CMHC’s 2026 housing outlook says Ontario housing starts are projected to fall to near two-decade lows in 2026, driven by very weak condominium pre-construction sales. That is a major warning sign for the GTA, where affordability has already been strained and where future supply depends heavily on projects being launched today.
For buyers and investors, this creates an important 2026 question: if resale activity gradually recovers while new construction stays weak, will the GTA face tighter conditions later on? That is why this is such a hot story. The market may look softer on the surface today, but underneath, the pipeline for future housing is under pressure. In other words, 2026 could be remembered as the year the GTA’s next supply crunch quietly started to form.