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Canadian Home Prices Hold Modestly While National Sales Edge Down

Across Canada, the housing market showed only subtle movement as national sales edged slightly lower while prices held steady. The average selling price in September 2025 stood at C$676,154, marking a modest 1% increase from a year earlier, while the benchmark price slipped to C$682,600 — down 3.4% annually. Total home sales reached 39,938, a minor 0.3% drop year-over-year, signaling that national demand remains soft but stable.The sales-to-new-listings ratio of 50.7% reflects a balanced market, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers currently dominate negotiations. Regional differences, however, continue to shape the national picture: while affordability has improved slightly in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, higher-priced regions like Ontario and British Columbia are still contending with subdued sales and price stagnation. These contrasts underline the growing divide between Canada’s overheated and affordable markets.Economists predict that the next six months will be pivotal for the country’s real estate trajectory. If inflation continues to ease and the Bank of Canada implements its first rate cut in early 2026, many expect renewed buyer activity and gradual price recovery. Until then, the market is likely to remain stable but sluggish — characterized by cautious optimism and regional divergence.Longer-term forecasts suggest that Canada’s housing landscape may gradually rebalance as more supply enters the market through new construction and policy incentives. However, rising construction costs and labor shortages could temper the pace of progress. Policymakers are emphasizing the need for sustainable affordability rather than short-term price spikes, aiming for steadier growth through 2026 and beyond.A growing concern for policymakers is the uneven distribution of new housing supply. While several provinces are accelerating construction to meet demand, bottlenecks in major urban centers continue to limit progress. Municipal zoning delays, infrastructure constraints, and rising land prices have slowed the rollout of new projects in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. These structural challenges risk prolonging affordability issues, even if national price growth remains moderate.In contrast, smaller cities and mid-sized communities are experiencing increased interest from both buyers and developers. Remote work flexibility, lower taxes, and more affordable housing options are drawing Canadians away from major metropolitan areas. This migration trend is prompting new economic activity and infrastructure development in regions that have historically seen slower growth, potentially reshaping the long-term housing map of the country.

24 days ago

Toronto Home Sales Fall to Four-Month Low in October

The Greater Toronto Area’s housing market continued to cool in October, with home sales dipping to a four-month low. Seasonally adjusted sales fell 2.3% from September, reflecting persistent buyer hesitation amid ongoing affordability challenges and elevated mortgage rates. Despite the slowdown, the home-price index saw a slight month-over-month uptick to C$976,600, suggesting minor resilience in certain segments of the market.Realtors across the region report that listings are rising faster than demand, creating more balanced conditions after years of intense seller dominance. Many homeowners who entered the market earlier in the year are now reducing their asking prices to attract offers, while buyers remain selective. Detached and semi-detached homes in suburban areas have seen the sharpest declines in activity, as higher borrowing costs continue to limit affordability.Market experts believe that the current stagnation could persist through the winter months unless monetary policy changes spark renewed confidence. Many potential buyers are closely watching the Bank of Canada for signals of an upcoming rate cut, which could lower borrowing costs and restore momentum. Until then, the Toronto market appears to be settling into a slower, more cautious rhythm heading into 2026.Industry observers suggest that 2026 could become a pivotal year for Toronto’s housing recovery if rates start easing by spring. Lower borrowing costs, combined with ongoing population growth and strong immigration trends, could reignite buyer interest and stabilize prices. However, much will depend on wage growth and the pace at which the market absorbs current inventory levels.Another dynamic shaping the market is the growing influence of seasoned investors who are taking a “wait and watch” strategy. Many are refraining from acquiring new properties until borrowing conditions become more favorable, while others are using the current slowdown to hunt for undervalued opportunities. This cautious investor behavior has reduced speculative pressure, contributing to softer price appreciation and more negotiating space for end-user buyers.Meanwhile, rental demand remains strong across the GTA, as would-be buyers continue renting due to high mortgage qualification hurdles. This sustained pressure on the rental market has pushed rents higher, indirectly motivating some households to consider buying sooner — but most continue to face budget constraints. Until financing becomes more accessible, the interplay between rental and ownership markets is expected to maintain a subdued purchasing environment.

24 days ago

Luxury Home Sales in the GTA Take a 15% Hit in Q3

The luxury resale segment in the GTA — defined as homes priced at CA$3 million and above — slipped markedly in the third quarter of 2025. Sales of these luxury homes fell approximately 15 % year-over-year, from 376 units in Q3 2024 to 321 in Q3 2025. Additionally, compared with the second quarter of 2025 (388 sales), the drop was about 17 %.Interestingly, despite the overall decline, high-end activity remains concentrated in Toronto’s "established" luxury neighbourhoods. Of the 22 GTA neighbourhoods which recorded at least five luxury home sales in Q3 2025, 14 of them were in the City of Toronto proper. These include areas such as Lawrence Park, Forest Hill, Rosedale, Yorkville and Ledbury Park.These data suggest two contrasting phenomena: a cooling of the upper-end market overall in the GTA, but a degree of resilience in the most desirable enclaves. For sellers in the luxury segment, the caution is that the pool of buyers is smaller and competition among sellers may become tougher. For buyers, this may present opportunities previously restricted to more aggressive bidding.Another layer: the slowdown in luxury sales may reflect broader affordability headwinds — high interest rates, tight lending, and a general caution among wealthy buyers — as well as a potential shift in investor strategy (or timing) in the high-end home market.Going forward, market watchers suggest the luxury segment may see continued moderation, unless there is a meaningful drop in interest rates or renewed confidence among top-tier buyers. For now, it appears to be a “buyer’s window” in luxury for those able to participate.

a month ago

Bank of Canada Cuts Key Rate to 2.25%, Signaling a Pause Ahead

On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering its key policy rate to 2.25%. This marks the second reduction in just over a month and reflects growing concern about a slowing economy, weaker job growth, and easing inflation pressures. The central bank said inflation has now remained within its target range of 2–3% for several months, giving policymakers room to support borrowing and spending. However, Governor Tiff Macklem signaled that this might be the last rate cut for some time, calling the new level “appropriate” for current conditions.The move is expected to bring modest relief to mortgage holders, especially those with variable-rate loans and home equity lines of credit. Monthly payments for many borrowers will decrease slightly, as prime lending rates fall in response to the Bank of Canada’s move. For example, a homeowner with a $700,000 variable-rate mortgage could see their monthly payment drop by about $100, depending on their lender and amortization schedule. However, fixed mortgage rates—tied to longer-term bond yields—are likely to decline more gradually as markets adjust to the new policy stance.In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the announcement has already sparked renewed optimism among prospective homebuyers. Real estate brokers report an uptick in inquiries from first-time buyers who had been priced out when rates were higher. The cut is also expected to help developers and investors in the pre-construction condo market, where financing challenges have intensified this year. However, the overall affordability picture remains tough: despite easing rates, high home prices and rising living costs continue to limit purchasing power across much of the region.Economists warn that the Bank of Canada’s latest move is not the beginning of an extended easing cycle. Policymakers remain cautious about over-stimulating the housing sector or fueling another surge in household debt. The message from Ottawa is one of balance — offering enough relief to prevent a deeper economic slowdown but stopping short of reigniting speculative real estate activity. Market analysts say the next few months will be crucial in determining whether lower borrowing costs translate into stronger home sales or merely stabilize the market at current levels.For GTA homeowners and buyers, this rate cut provides a welcome pause after two years of sharp increases that strained household budgets and cooled property values. While the change is unlikely to spark a dramatic rebound, it may encourage some movement in both resale and new-home segments heading into the winter months. Ultimately, the rate drop represents a small but meaningful shift toward affordability, even as broader challenges — such as limited housing supply and high debt levels — continue to shape the GTA’s real estate landscape.

a month ago

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Overhauls Leadership at Its Technology Arm

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has replaced the board of its technology subsidiary, PropTx Innovations Inc., as part of a broader governance and strategy review. The move signals TRREB’s growing focus on digital transformation and the modernization of real estate tools used by agents and brokerages.PropTx, which develops and manages digital platforms for listings, data analytics, and client management, is central to TRREB’s push toward smarter and more efficient real estate operations. By restructuring its leadership, TRREB aims to align PropTx’s direction with the evolving needs of the GTA’s competitive property market.The change highlights a shift in how real estate organizations are prioritizing technology—not as a secondary service, but as the foundation of modern real estate practice. With AI-driven analytics, digital marketing automation, and integrated client-management tools becoming essential, boards are placing heavier emphasis on data governance and innovation strategy.For agents and brokerages, this could mean faster access to improved digital tools and enhanced transparency in data management. The shake-up also reflects growing industry expectations for platforms that are both powerful and compliant with privacy and security standards.Ultimately, this governance shift could accelerate the rollout of new technology offerings in the GTA’s real estate ecosystem—reshaping how professionals connect with clients, manage transactions, and compete in an increasingly data-driven market.

2 months ago

GTA Housing Market Shows Slight Uptick Amid Continued Price Declines

The Greater Toronto Area housing market showed mixed signals in September 2025, as prices continued to fall while sales activity began to recover. After months of sluggish movement, the market is showing early signs of renewed energy from buyers.Average home prices across the GTA dropped 4.3 % year-over-year to about $1.06 million. Detached homes averaged roughly $1.36 million, while condos settled around $655,000, marking modest declines across all major categories.Despite the dip in prices, total home sales rose 12 % compared with last year, reaching 5,592 transactions. This indicates that some buyers are re-entering the market, likely taking advantage of the softer pricing environment.Inventory levels remained high, with active listings up 15 % from last year. More properties on the market mean buyers have greater choice and leverage when negotiating deals.The sales-to-new-listings ratio held around 29 %, confirming that market conditions still favour buyers. Sellers are finding it harder to command top dollar and often need to adjust expectations.Lower mortgage rates in recent weeks have contributed to the uptick in activity. As borrowing costs ease slightly, more first-time buyers and investors appear willing to test the market.Even so, caution dominates sentiment. Homes are staying on the market longer, and buyers are more selective than ever, forcing sellers to focus on pricing, presentation, and timing to close successful deals.

2 months ago

Canada’s Inflation Ticks Up to 2.4 % in September, Undercutting BoC’s Rate-Cut Expectations

Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4 % in September 2025, up from 1.9 % in August and slightly above what economists had anticipated. The increase was driven largely by a smaller-than-expected reduction in gasoline prices and a noticeable uptick in food and shelter costs. This marks the first time in several months that headline inflation has moved higher, interrupting the downward trend seen through much of the year.Breaking down the numbers: gasoline prices, which had been declining year-over-year, fell less in September than they did in the same period a year ago, lessening their drag on headline inflation. Food prices climbed 3.8 % year-over-year, with grocery purchases seeing their highest rise since early 2024. Shelter costs also contributed, with rents up 4.8 %, adding continued pressure on households already facing affordability challenges.Core inflation measures remain stubborn. The Bank of Canada’s preferred gauges — CPI-median and CPI-trim — were around 3.2 % and 3.1 %, respectively. This suggests that even though headline inflation appears moderate, underlying price pressures are still embedded across key sectors such as housing, insurance, and services.The data has immediate implications for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming policy meeting on October 29. Markets had widely expected a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would have lowered the policy rate to around 2.25 %. However, the stronger-than-expected inflation reading has reduced those odds, as policymakers may now opt to wait for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2 % target before easing further.For households and businesses, this could mean borrowing costs remain higher for longer than anticipated. Mortgage holders, particularly those with variable rates, may continue to feel pressure, while potential homebuyers could face tighter conditions heading into the winter housing season.In summary, while inflation remains within the Bank of Canada’s 1 %-to-3 % control range, the unexpected rise highlights the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and preventing renewed price acceleration. The next few weeks of economic data will be crucial in determining whether the central bank stays the course or begins its long-anticipated rate-cutting cycle.

2 months ago

GTA Home Prices Forecast to Slide ~3% as Market Edges Toward Balance

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is showing signs of moving toward a more balanced state, as recent figures indicate a mild decline in home prices. In the third quarter of 2025, the aggregate price of a home in the region fell by approximately 3.5 % year-over-year, landing near $1.11 million.Looking ahead, analysts expect GTA home prices to slip another 3 % in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. While the decrease is modest, it represents a significant cooling after years of sharp price escalation driven by low supply and high demand.The shift is being interpreted by market experts as a transition away from the extreme seller’s-market conditions that dominated during and after the pandemic. Buyers are beginning to regain leverage in negotiations, and properties are staying on the market slightly longer as inventory slowly builds.Despite the softer prices, sales activity across the GTA remains relatively resilient. While national housing sales dipped in September, the Toronto region has held steady in several key segments—particularly mid-priced detached homes and newer condominiums. This resilience suggests that local demand remains healthy, supported by strong population growth and employment stability.For buyers and sellers alike, the changing conditions offer both opportunity and caution. Buyers may find greater flexibility and room to negotiate, especially in condo and townhouse markets. Sellers, on the other hand, may need to adjust expectations and pricing strategies to stay competitive as the market normalizes.If trends continue into early 2026, the GTA may finally achieve a level of balance not seen in nearly a decade—where affordability, inventory, and demand align more evenly across the region.

2 months ago

Distressed Listings Surge in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

In the Greater Toronto Area, a new challenge has emerged beneath the surface of overall price declines — a growing wave of distressed and forced sales. Power of Sale listings, where lenders take control of properties due to default, have risen sharply compared to last year and are now at their highest level in several years. This surge reflects the strain that many heavily leveraged homeowners are feeling as mortgage renewals bring much higher monthly payments and refinancing options remain limited.While the total number of distressed properties is still modest relative to the size of the market, the upward trend is notable because it introduces additional downward pressure on values. Forced sales often occur at discounted prices, which can ripple through neighbourhood comparables and push broader market valuations lower. It also signals that some property owners, particularly in high-debt segments such as condos and investment properties, may be struggling to hold on amid weaker rental yields and higher costs.For investors and buyers, these distressed listings can present both opportunity and risk. They may offer attractive entry prices, but often come with added complexity — from property condition issues to uncertain timelines. For homeowners, the rise in forced sales is a reminder to review mortgage terms, assess renewal exposure, and plan for higher carrying costs. This development also highlights a deeper truth about the GTA market: while it remains resilient in some neighbourhoods, it is undergoing a financial and psychological reset after years of rapid appreciation.Additional Insight: The increase in distress also highlights a growing divide between those with stable, low-rate mortgages and those who bought recently at peak prices. Many newer homeowners are trapped between declining property values and rising debt payments, limiting their flexibility to sell or refinance. As a result, even if large-scale defaults remain limited, the cumulative effect of these financial pressures could weigh on consumer spending, renovation activity, and the broader local economy through 2026.

2 months ago

Canadian Homebuilding and Market Outlook: Growth Meets Caution

Despite signs of weakness in resale activity, Canada’s housing starts rose sharply in September, with builders pushing ahead on projects that had been planned months or years earlier. The increase in new home construction might seem to contradict the broader slowdown, but it likely reflects government incentives, backlog clearances, and the long lead time between approvals and ground-breaking. Builders are still cautious, though, as rising material costs, labour shortages, and slower presales are putting pressure on margins.While construction levels are up in the short term, overall sentiment among developers has softened. Many builders are concerned that rising interest rates and limited buyer demand could lead to oversupply in certain markets, especially urban condo sectors. Others worry that the affordability crisis and tightening credit could slow future absorption rates. This mix of growth and hesitation captures the current mood of the housing industry — active but uncertain, forward-looking but wary of headwinds.For the broader economy, this dynamic represents both a risk and an opportunity. If demand continues to lag behind supply, prices could fall further before stabilizing. However, the increased pace of construction could help alleviate Canada’s chronic housing shortage once conditions normalize. The next few quarters will be pivotal: if interest rates ease and consumer confidence strengthens, today’s cautious building activity could position the market for a healthier recovery in 2026.Additional Insight: The tension between housing supply goals and financial reality is now at the forefront of national policy debates. Governments are pushing for record levels of construction to address the housing crisis, but private developers are signaling that the math no longer works without lower borrowing costs or subsidies. This disconnect may lead to policy innovation — including new financing models, public-private partnerships, or targeted tax incentives — aimed at keeping construction alive while protecting affordability.

2 months ago

Sellers Flood the Canadian Market with Record Inventory

Canada’s housing market is currently experiencing a flood of new listings, marking one of the largest surges in supply seen in over a decade. In September, the number of newly listed homes jumped well above the historical average, indicating that more sellers are entering the market — many of them likely prompted by high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, or fading price expectations. Nationally, the benchmark home price fell slightly in September and is down from the same time last year, extending the decline that began after the 2022 peak.While sales improved modestly from last year, they still lag behind the ten-year average, meaning that demand hasn’t kept pace with the new wave of supply. The sales-to-new-listings ratio has dropped into clear buyer’s market territory — its weakest point in decades. This shift means buyers are gaining leverage for the first time in years, and sellers face increasing pressure to price competitively or offer concessions to stand out in a crowded market.Looking forward, this imbalance between listings and demand suggests the housing market is entering a prolonged adjustment phase rather than a short-term correction. Rising inventory levels tend to accelerate price declines and lengthen time-on-market periods, which could persist until borrowing costs fall meaningfully or confidence returns. For buyers, it’s a rare chance to negotiate from strength. For sellers, patience and realistic pricing will be essential through the remainder of 2025.Additional Insight: Beyond the market data, this surge in listings reflects a broader economic recalibration. Many homeowners who purchased or refinanced at low interest rates are now confronting the end of their fixed terms, forcing difficult decisions about affordability. At the same time, investors who bought multiple properties during the boom are starting to offload assets as carrying costs rise faster than rental income. This shift suggests that the market correction is not just cyclical but structural — a necessary rebalancing after years of speculative excess.

2 months ago

GTA Real Estate at a Crossroads: Indicators of Change in 2025

1. A Sales Surge Amid Price DeclinesThe Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is showing early signs of revival. Home sales have risen notably over the past several months, even as average prices continue to fall. This divergence suggests that buyers are re-entering the market, encouraged by slightly improved borrowing conditions and a wider range of available listings. While prices remain under pressure, stronger activity levels may signal a turning point as the market seeks a new balance.2. Deep Correction in Low-Rise HousingLow-rise properties such as detached and semi-detached homes have undergone one of the deepest corrections in recent memory. Prices in this segment have fallen significantly from their pandemic highs, driven by higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions. Yet, a modest rebound in demand has emerged as buyers recognize long-term value in family-oriented neighborhoods. The correction may ultimately help restore healthier fundamentals to the housing market.3. Condo Market Still Under StressCondominiums across the GTA continue to face headwinds. Rising inventory, investor pullbacks, and elevated maintenance fees are weighing heavily on this segment. New projects are proceeding more cautiously, with developers focusing on affordability and smaller unit sizes to attract end-users rather than investors. While downtown Toronto is expected to recover first, outlying areas with oversupply may continue to experience subdued price growth well into next year.4. Commercial Real Estate and Investment Pull-BacksThe commercial and investment property markets have also softened, reflecting broader economic uncertainty. Fewer large-scale development deals are being finalized, and office vacancy rates remain elevated due to hybrid work patterns. This slowdown in the commercial sector has ripple effects across residential development, as financing becomes more conservative and new project starts decline. Investors are watching closely to see whether the coming quarters bring renewed confidence.5. Outlook & Signals of a Turning PointDespite short-term challenges, there are growing indicators that the market may be approaching a more stable phase. The gradual easing of borrowing costs, a steady flow of immigration, and persistent housing demand suggest that a recovery could form in late 2025 or early 2026. If economic conditions remain stable, analysts anticipate a measured return to price growth, particularly in transit-accessible and high-demand neighborhoods. The coming year may mark the start of a slow but sustainable rebound for GTA real estate.

2 months ago

Developers Retrench Despite Generous Incentives

Canadian real estate developers are sharply scaling back projects, even as governments introduce new incentives to boost housing supply. In August 2025, the value of residential building permits dropped by 2.4%, or about $173 million, and after adjusting for inflation, the decline was closer to 8%. The slowdown highlights how rapidly rising construction costs, financing challenges, and market uncertainty are eroding the impact of government support measures aimed at stimulating new home construction.Single-Family Sector Hardest Hit, Multi-Family Also WeakeningThe pullback has been most pronounced in the single-family home segment, where permit values fell more than 4% month-over-month and over 10% compared to last year. Levels are now at their lowest point in several years, signaling a deep cooling of detached home development. Multi-family construction, which had held up better in previous quarters, is also starting to show strain, with developers delaying or cancelling condo and apartment projects amid concerns over slower presales and tighter lending conditions.Ontario and Alberta Lead Declines; Quebec and B.C. More ResilientOntario and Alberta saw the steepest declines in new building activity, driven by weaker demand and elevated borrowing costs. Developers in these provinces are facing thinner margins and longer project timelines, prompting many to shelve plans until market confidence returns. By contrast, Quebec and British Columbia recorded modest increases in permit values, largely driven by institutional and multi-residential projects, though analysts caution these gains may not reflect sustained private-sector momentum.Incentives Losing Power as Risks MountGovernment efforts to jumpstart construction through tax breaks, loan guarantees, and other incentives have done little to offset the rising risks developers face. The combination of high interest rates, inflated land prices, labor shortages, and regulatory delays has made new projects harder to justify financially. Many builders now view the current environment as too volatile to take on major new commitments, despite the potential long-term benefits of government support.Outlook: Further Slowdown Likely Unless Costs EaseUnless financing conditions improve and construction costs stabilize, Canada’s housing pipeline is likely to shrink further in the coming months. The slowdown threatens to worsen the country’s long-term housing supply problem, even as population growth continues to drive demand. Industry experts warn that without stronger market fundamentals and reduced risk exposure, the recent wave of incentives may fail to generate the level of new housing policymakers are counting on.

2 months ago

Gradual price stabilization with selective recovery

Over the next few years, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is likely to move toward price stabilization, with some modest recovery in select segments. After a period of correction, many property types (especially detached homes) may level off, with annual price growth in the low single digits. But this recovery won’t be uniform: suburban areas with strong transit access and good schools may outperform, while high-supply zones (especially in condo-heavy downtown cores) could lag behind.2. Condo segment’s recovery—and risks—take center stageThe condo market, which has been under pressure, is poised for a more volatile rebound. As mortgage rates ease and investor sentiment returns, we could see renewed demand for mid-rise and well-located high-rise projects. However, oversupply, high maintenance fees, and tighter lending for investment condos will continue to weigh. The recovery is likely to be patchy: new premium condos may fare better than older budget units.3. Growth in infill and intensification projectsGiven land constraints and urban densification policies, infill developments, conversions, and intensification in established neighbourhoods will become more prominent. Expect a rise in laneway houses, duplex/tri-plex conversions, and small-scale medium-density redevelopment (e.g. “missing middle” housing). Municipalities increasingly support these through zoning changes, which may help boost supply in desirable inner suburbs.4. Stronger demand in transit corridors & secondary nodesAs commuting patterns adjust and remote/hybrid work persists, demand will concentrate along major transit corridors (e.g. GO lines, subway extensions). Areas further from the core but within good transit reach will become more attractive. Secondary nodes (smaller urban centres around the GTA) will see stronger growth, as buyers seek more space for less cost but still want connectivity.5. Affordability, interest rates, and macro risks remain criticalThe biggest wildcards driving the future are interest rates, inflation, and macro-economic conditions. If rates stay high or rise again, affordability could choke off demand. Younger buyers and first-timers are especially sensitive. On the flip side, if rates fall more than expected, it could spark a stronger bounce in prices. Also, external shocks (e.g. global inflation, policy changes, credit tightening) may introduce volatility. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on how these broader forces evolve.

2 months ago

GTA Real Estate Market Trends — October 2025

1. Price softening and downward pressureThe Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continues to experience downward pressure on prices. The benchmark home price has dipped by around 5–6 % year-over-year, and the average sold price across all property types has also fallen by roughly 4 %. Detached homes have been hit hardest, with prices declining more sharply compared to semi-detached and townhouse units. The combination of high borrowing costs and increased listings is keeping prices under strain, though the market remains active.2. Rebound in sales activityDespite the price corrections, overall market activity is showing early signs of recovery. Home sales have increased by close to 10 % compared to last year, marking some of the busiest months since 2021. More listings are entering the market, providing buyers with additional options. Realtors are reporting that demand is gradually returning as buyers adjust to new interest-rate realities and some begin taking advantage of slightly lower prices.3. Condo market under pressureThe condo segment remains the most volatile part of the GTA housing landscape. Prices in downtown and midtown areas have continued to decline as investor demand weakens and new construction projects add more supply. Rising maintenance fees and reduced short-term rental profitability have discouraged many small investors. Analysts expect condo prices to fall further before stabilizing toward mid-2026, as developers slow down new project launches and unsold inventory gets absorbed.4. Modest improvement in affordabilityThere has been a slight improvement in affordability as mortgage rates ease from their 2024 highs. This has encouraged some first-time buyers to re-enter the market, particularly in outer suburban regions like Durham, Halton, and Peel. However, sentiment remains cautious, with many potential buyers waiting for more clarity on rate movements and job market stability. The overall tone is more balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a clear advantage.5. Outlook and key risksLooking ahead, moderate growth is expected for the remainder of 2025. Market forecasts point to a mild rebound in sales volumes and a gradual price recovery in 2026. However, several risks persist — including potential interest-rate hikes, global economic uncertainty, and fluctuating investor confidence. The return-to-office trend is also reshaping demand patterns: suburban communities are cooling slightly, while interest in central Toronto neighborhoods is starting to pick up again.

2 months ago